A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
